End of the World(story)

I wrote this story six years ago,trying to simplify my ideas about the end of Civilization,...it is still helpful now

THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 1

Oliver: Happy New Year Robert.
Robert: Happy New Year Oliver
Oliver: can you believe it? We are already in the year 2004, (smiling) you once said that it will never come!
Robert: I am glad I was mistaken about that.
Oliver: Really?!I am not sure about that.
Robert: What do you mean by that Oliver?
Oliver: well, I always find you glad when bad things happen!
Robert: this is not true.
Oliver: it is true.
Robert: OK, let me explain, I do not become glad because something bad happened, I become glad because what happened matched my expectations, which means that my studies are on the right way
Oliver: I believe you are pessimistic by nature!
Robert: no Oliver, I only like to face the facts not run away from them.
Oliver: What facts?!Is the collapse of the world a fact?!
Robert: yes!
Oliver: What kind of logic is that? NO one can predict the Future.
Robert: but Oliver, predicting the future is what science is all about, for example the law of gravity predicts that when a body is thrown upward it will come down again, and the laws of Chemistry predict that when you mix a certain substance with another one the result has to be so and so, and if you give a patient a certain medicine he will be cured,..And so on.
Oliver: this is only in pure science, but in the Human science no one can predict anything.
Robert: the difference between pure and human science is only in the degree of accuracy, not in the main logic of any science which is trying to predict the future.
Oliver: I still do not think that any one can predict the future when it comes to a human related matter.
Robert: Ok, take this example; can’t we say that History shows us that all civilizations have to collapse one day?
Oliver: well, maybe ,but if you are trying to say that the modern civilization has to collapse one day ,you will not be able to say when or how it will collapse ,and also you must admit that another civilization, and maybe a higher one ,has to follow our civilization,...beside ,you cannot say the whole world is only one civilizations if the western civilization would collapse now, it is very possible that the East will go on growing.
Robert: OK, let us put in front of us all the past civilizations and all the ones that may come in the future .You must admit that there must be a highest one between them.
Oliver: Highest in what way? Every civilization has its own properties and characteristics.
Robert: take any criteria or standard, for example, the number of population, or the quantity of energy consumed any criteria or standard that you may wish, now, you have to admit that there will be a certain civilization and even a certain moment in this civilization that represents the PEAK of all civilizations.
Oliver: why don't we say that these criteria which we choose may go on growing forever?
Robert: nothing can grow forever, Oliver.
Oliver: you can't prove that.
Robert: this is a very deep Philosophical point, but let us not stop here, let us put it in the practical way, do you know ANYTHING that grows forever?
Oliver: OK,I will not stop at this point, so what?
Robert: SO, we can look at all human civilizations as one civilization which has ONE peak.
Oliver :( smiling) and this peak is now, right?
Robert: Actually, we may already have passed that peak, and we are on our way down!
Oliver: you cannot prove that, and even if you proved it, it will mean that we JUST started the way down and we still have thousands of years to go down.
Robert: this is not true Oliver
THE END OF PART ONE

THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 2

Robert: let us assume that we are now at the peak of all the civilizations that mankind made or will make, and that we are going down word, do you really think that it would take thousands of years for the complete collapse?
Oliver: Sure.
Robert: Why?
Oliver: because there were thousands of year of civilization before now, so it will need another thousands of year to be destroyed.
Robert: ok ,imagine that the world ,which has now more than 6 billions of people, lost 5 billion of them,...would you call that a complete collapse?
Oliver: 5 billions lost!!Of course that would be a huge collapse.
Robert: then we are not talking about thousands of years; we are talking about only 200 years.
Oliver: what do you mean by that?
Robert: the population in the world never reached one billion before the year 1800...so you see; we have only 200 years to lose 5 billions.
Oliver: any way, even if that was the case, why do you keep saying that the huge collapse is very soon?...200 year is not a very short time, you know,...beside, which is the more important, you didn't prove yet that we are going down from now.
Robert: of course I still didn't prove that to you, but let us keep on assuming that we are at the peak.
Oliver: ok.
Robert: do you really think that it would take 200 years to lose the 5 billions?
Oliver: WHAT ABOUT THAT TOO?!!
Robert: do you really think that the time of building anything is equal to the time needed for this thing to be destroyed?
Oliver: WHY NOT? And why would it have to be equal? I think that it would take much longer time for the destruction to take place.
Robert: NEVER!
Oliver: and WHY is that?
Robert: it is a logical law!
Oliver: what logical law?
Robert: it is a logical law that the time of destruction has to be shorter than the time of building, and that goes for every thing!
Oliver: I never heard about this law, and it does not seem to be very logical to me.
Robert: ok, let us be more practical,I will give you some example,..What is easier for you to do, to build a house or to destroy it?
Oliver: to destroy it.
Robert: it also means that you can destroy a house in a period of time less than the time needed to build it.
Oliver: yes.
Robert: is it easier to go up a hill or to go down?
Oliver: to go down.
Robert: and it will take less time,ok, how much time is needed for a bubble to form and for a bubble to burst?...and for a spring to be stretched or squeezed, and for a spring to be back to its size?.......in all these examples building is like putting a certain quantity of energy in a closed system, and when the procedure of collapsing begins, all the energy is released at once, the case seems to be like opening the cage for this monster of energy to go out, and NO ONE will be able to control the monster of energy when it comes out of its cage!
Oliver: maybe, but all these examples are in the field of pure science; I still do not believe that you can apply the same principles on anything related to human or even to any living creature.
Robert: I told you before, Oliver, that there is no difference in principle between pure science and human science .ok, take these examples........
THE END OF PART 2



THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 3

Robert: in all upper animals, death comes at once, also falling ill happens at once, believing in a certain religion happens at once, even falling in love happens at once!
Oliver: well....
Robert: when you write a story or compose a piece of music, the climax has to be near the end, and then the emotions fade so quickly.
Oliver :( smiling) that reminds me with the quick fade of power which follows the sexual orgasm!
Robert: that’s right, I think you got my point now.
Oliver: Robert, I think that we have to go back now to the main point of the peak, before going farther, you didn't say why should it be a sharp peak? Why couldn't it be a flat peak?!...I mean that even if we did reach the peak now, it is very possible that we may stay there for relatively long time without going downward or even growing farther.
Robert: this is a good point, you see Oliver, there is a big difference between the stable state and what we are in now, the stable state, that can stay balanced for a relatively long time has conditions that are not present in our case.
Oliver: and what would be these conditions?
Robert: ok, when you build a building and you want it to stay stable you have to build it in strong bases.
Oliver: sure.
Robert: if the building was built rashly and quickly, it cannot have strong bases, strong bases need good time to be done.
Oliver: but why can't we say that the bases may be done quickly and strongly in the same time?
Robert: maybe, but the quick rise would be an alarming sign that the bases weren’t strong enough.
Oliver: well, I guess so.
Robert: it is obvious that the modern civilization rose very quickly.
Oliver: Robert, "quickly" is a very relative word, how can you tell that 200 years were not enough to found strong bases?!
Robert: you are right, but when I say" quickly" here,I am not referring to the numbers of years, but to the way in which the procedure of building was done,...you see Oliver,...when you do your work in a relaxed mood, is not like doing it when you are under pressure,...when you do it under pressure you probably will leave gaps in it, which will lead to a very fragile building that cannot last stable.
Oliver :( smiling) well, I don't think that anyone was rushing humanity when it achieved its progress.
Robert: at least here there is a known theory, did you hear about the theory of CHALLENGE and RESPONSE by Arnold Toynbee?
Oliver: I think so...
Robert: Toynbee said that all the big steps in the progress of civilization were not taken because good conditions existed, but on the contrary, all the big steps of civilization were taken under the pressure of very bad conditions! Even in the procedure of biological evolution, modern science proved that the big steps were taken under great pressure of very bad conditions!
Oliver: I don't know about that, but I don't think that there are serious gaps in our civilization.
Robert: actually there are HUGE gaps.
Oliver: name some......

THE END OF PART 3




THE END OF THE WORLD

PART 4

Robert: in spite of the great achievements man had made in pure science and technology, humanity could not agree upon the more basic ideas in philosophy, psychology and religions
Olive: but Robert, this diversity in philosophical and religious ideas enriches the human culture
Robert: but still, you cannot deny that the existence of these differences means that humanity couldn't agree on which of them is true
Oliver: well,I think that in the field of philosophy and religion it is not so right to ask which of the ideas are true,..Every one of these ideas gives part of the truth from a certain point of view
Robert: Oliver, Different philosophies and religions contradict each other; you cannot take them all as truth
Oliver: but is there an absolute truth in these fields?
Robert: if you assumed that there is no absolute truth, you are stating an absolute truth!!Hence you are contradicting yourself!
Oliver: any way, what other gaps do you see?
Robert: a stable building has to be homogeneous .but it is obvious that there are parts of humanity that are left behind
Oliver: do you mean poverty?
Robert: poverty, ignorance.......you name it, don’t you think that these weak parts of humanity represent a serious threat to the progress of the other parts?
Oliver: ok, I may agree that there may be some weak points in our civilization, but I believe that by the strong will and the good work, humanity will be able to fix up all these gaps
Robert: no way Oliver! I told you before that we already reached the peak of human civilization; things will go down, not up, from here!
Oliver: you still didn't prove yet that we are in the peak
Robert: ok,I will give you more than one proof,...let us start with this,.....it is obvious that the rate of progress of humanity was accelerating,..Do you know the reason behind that?
Oliver: well, every higher stage of progress opens more horizons for more progress in front of humanity
Robert: ok, but the rate of progress cannot go higher and higher or else it will mean that we will reach a huge speed of progress very soon, then what will follow?!
Oliver: the rate will slow...
Robert: but Oliver, you just said that the rate of progress has to be higher in the higher stages!
Oliver :( smiling) are you trying to confuse me?
Robert :( smiling) no Oliver, I am trying to tell you that there was another and more important reason for the acceleration that happened in human progress....

THE END OF PART 4




THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 5

Oliver: ok, you tell me about the main reason behind the acceleration
Robert: RESISTANCE!
Oliver: resistance! Resistance to what?
Robert: resistance to collapsing!
Oliver: resistance to collapsing! I don't think I am getting your point Robert
Robert: I told you before Oliver, that the great steps of evolution were taken under the pressure of very bad conditions,so, the more steps of progress taken means that the pressure of bad conditions were more strong,..Did you get my point now?
Oliver :( smiling) no!
Robert:(smiling)ok,...the higher the rate of progress is, means that more steps of progress were taken in shorter periods of time, which means that the conditions were worse than the case of low rate of progress
Oliver: but Robert, progress means that the conditions of life are getting better not worse!! Robert: ok, let me put it this way, I told you that a step of progress is taken under the pressure of very bad conditions,so, what does "very bad conditions" mean??.....it means the threat of collapsing.....yes Oliver, every step of progress comes as a resistance to the threat of collapsing, that's why when we find rapid steps of progress taken in a shorter period of time it has to mean that the threats of collapsing are so high,..That’s why the resistance (BY PROGRESS) was so high
Oliver: this is a very strange picture Robert! You look to great progress as a sign of higher dangers of collapsing!!...I am sure that there is something very wrong about all that, maybe it is this strange theory that you told me about,I mean the one which says that the steps of progress are taken only under bad conditions
Robert:(smiling)I understand Oliver, it is not an easy theory after all, I should have explain it more to you before,...but it’s ok, let me give you some examples,......tell me Oliver, why was the Atomic bomb invented?
Oliver: WAR!
Robert: a very bad condition!
Oliver: Robert, do you only have to talk about weapons?
Robert: no! But there were so many inventions that were made mainly for the military purpose, even the computer and the internet!
Oliver: but you cannot say that all inventions were made for military purposes
Robert: I didn't say that, war was not the only very bad condition that humanity had, There were severe diseases, famines, floods, earthquakes,
Oliver: ok,ok, but you didn't say why these threats became higher in the modern times Robert: it is obvious Oliver that the world has become less safe after inventing the Atomic bomb
Oliver: true
Robert: not only weapons Oliver, every new invention makes the world less safe!!!!

THE END OF PART 5





THE END OF THE WORLD

PART 6

Oliver: Robert! Inventions are meant to make life better
Robert: and much more fragile!!
Oliver: if this was the case, why would people keep on making new inventions?
Robert: they didn't have other choice, once the resistance stops, the collapse would have taken place immediately
Oliver: then we have to keep on inventing
Robert: there is a point when the resistance stops from being effective,...the case is so much like a dying patient and you are giving him higher and higher doses of medicines in order to keep him alive,..There must come a point when the very high doses of medicine will stop from being effective
Oliver: it’s enough from this proof; you said that you have other proofs
Robert: sure, it is obvious that energy sources are the life line of modern civilization Oliver: sure
Robert: and that we are now in the peak of global Oil production
Oliver: I know what you are trying to say, but I believe that other alternatives will be ready soon
Robert: I will assume that other alternatives could be found, and be practical in the same time (which is under serious doubts), still these alternatives have to come in the proper time, or else......
Oliver: what do you mean?
Robert: I mean that the medicine has to come in the proper time or we may lose the patient! As they say Oliver, things can get worse before they get better
Oliver: I understand, well, I think it will come in the proper time
Robert: this is something YOU have to prove to me!
Oliver: ok, do you have more proofs?
Robert: sure, (Smiling) do you have more time?
Oliver: (smiling) maybe some more minutes
Robert: very good, let us assume that the global collapse has already began for any kind of reason, even accidentally
Oliver: I don't believe that this may happen, I still believe that the fate of humanity is progress, and..
Robert: Oliver, I am saying ACCIDENTALLY, we cannot prevent a huge rock from falling from the sky and hitting the earth
Oliver: well, I guess not!
Robert: good!now once the process of collapsing begins, it cannot be stopped,...they call it "The domino phenomenon"...meaning that every partial collapse will ignite more collapses ,and so on.......,it is also called the chain reaction process
Oliver: any way, the possibility of such accident is too low
Robert: Oliver,we do not need a huge rock to hit the earth!....if the building is fragile, even a minor spark could be enough to ignite the chain reaction process of collapsing,....and if the building is SO fragile ,like our case,..It can come down under its own weight!
Oliver: UNDER ITS OWN WEIGHT!!
Robert: yes Oliver, that’s what, really happened to the global stock markets in the year 2000.......

THE END OF PART 6





THE END OF THE WORLD

Part 7

Oliver: why are you always so much concerned about the stock markets?
Robert: stock markets are the heart of modern economies, and the economy is the heart of civilization
Oliver: I think politics are more important
Robert: let me show you how important was the collapse that happened in the global stock markets during the last three years, do you think Oliver, that is was accidental to have all these political conflicts just after the year 2000?
Oliver: come on,...are you trying to say that the stock markets caused all this?!
Robert: the good economy is the hope of all people everywhere, and hope is the most basic matter
Oliver: any way, it is over now, The American economy is doing very well these days
Robert: do you think so?
Oliver: the numbers prove it
Robert: or is it the bounce of the dead cat?!!
Oliver: Robert! this is too much,..I really think you are pessimistic by nature!!.....good day Robert
Robert: good day Oliver!
IT WAS NOT LONG BEFORE THE TWO FRIENDS MET AGAIN...
Oliver: hello Robert, what are you doing?
Robert: hello Oliver, as you can see, I am following the stock markets
Oliver: not again Robert, please!
Robert: look Oliver, here is the curve of the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, it is the oldest and the most famous average in the NEW YORK stock market
Oliver: it seems to be doing very well to me
Robert: this average will collapse so sharply in few weeks!
Oliver :( smiling) I can bet that this will not happen
Robert: now I want to show you a curve that I made,it looks so much like the upper to the right quarter of a circle,...the upper point was in the year 2000,..I consider it the peak of modern civilization, then the curve begins to go down,slowly in the begining,then gaining more speed with time, till it reaches its highest rate of destruction
Oliver: so the pass downward is accelerating too!!...why is that?
Robert: it is the nature of the chain reaction, Oliver
Oliver: but you said before that the collapse will happen at once
Robert: of course,"at once" does not mean in NO time,...this acceleration process is always there in any collapse, but you do not observe it when it happens so quickly
Oliver: if the case was so .the rate of destruction should have been higher by now than it was two years ago,...but I can only see that things are getting better these days
Robert: you see Oliver, the curve cannot be so smooth, and one of the most important roughness in the curve is the one which just precedes the highest speed of destruction,it is usually called..
Oliver :( smiling) the bounce of the dead cat!
Robert :( smiling) right
Oliver:ok Robert,..Now before I leave you with your dead cat, I would like to invite you to a nice gathering with our old friends
Robert: that would be great Oliver
Oliver: very good,I will call you to tell you about the time
Robert: thank you Oliver
Oliver: welcome Robert, well,if I may ask you a favor...
Robert: sure Oliver
Oliver :( smiling) try not to mention these stories about the dead cats there!!
Robert :( smiling) I’ll try Oliver
Oliver: thank you, bye for now
Robert: bye

THE END OF PART 7

THE END OF THE WORLD
PART 8

IN THE SMALL PARTY
Oliver: coffee Robert?
Robert: yes please, thank you Oliver
Harold: how nice to see you again Robert, and to remember the old good days
Robert: very true Harold, old days were really good
Oliver: come on guys! What old days are you talking about?!Now are the real good days
Robert :( smiling) maybe it is these soft songs from the old days that gave us this feeling, it was a nice idea to play these songs now Oliver
Harold: I always remember the old days Robert
Robert: I am very sorry Harold about what happened to your business in the last couple of years
Harold: thank you Robert, it was hard days,but I am ok now
Robert: are you still planning to go to this country?
Harold: yes,I intend to go very soon
Robert: you know that I wish you all the best luck Harold, but this country...
Harold: I know what you are trying to say, but believe me ...business in this country is very promising
Robert: Harold, you have always been a very good friend....I feel that I have to give you my opinion very frankly before you go
Harold: sure Robert
Robert: I really don't think it will be a wise step,I mean it is just a reaction to what happened here
Harold: no Robert, honestly,..I always wanted to go there....you see Robert, these countries have very good chances for strong growth......beside, life there is more simple and more natural.....I am fed up with our artificial life here
Robert: do you really believe that life there is more close to nature?
Harold: ofcourse, This is obvious,(smiling)our evil civilization didn't reach all parts of this country yet
Robert: I read lot about these countries...and I believe that you will be shocked when you see how modern ways of living didn't leave any corner there
Harold: even so,There are still lot to do there
Robert: you didn't get my point Harold, I am talking about some kind of a fake copy of modern civilization...not a proper one
Harold: this is very hard to say Robert
Robert: they only took the FORM! there are no proper bases for civilization there
Harold: what are you talking about Robert?!..Civilization in this country is thousands of years older than our civilization
Robert: I am talking about MODERN civilization now, they do not have the bases of modern civilization
Harold: it will take some time
Roberto Harold, let us assume that the world will collapse soon,...which countries do you expect to be more safe?
Harold: a good question Robert,...because frankly I would feel more safe there more than I would be here
Robert: how is that? Which countries would be safer? Stronger or weaker ones?
Harold: Robert, .you would be amazed if you know how these countries stood firm when things here where going down during the past three years
Robert: ok,..let me put it to you this way,....the developed countries are FLEXIBLE,...like a soft branch of a tree,...so when the storm begins they react earlier ....they bend with the wind,......the undeveloped countries are like the solid branch,....they do not react to the first winds of the storm.....but when the storm begins to gather more strength....and the wind becomes strong enough....the solid branches will just....BREAK UP in a second!!
Oliver: more coffee guys?
Robert: yes please Oliver
Oliver: Harold, if this man is telling you about dead cats do not believe him!
Harold: what dead cats?!!
Robert :( smiling) that’s why the main collapse which happened in the year 2000 began in the most developed countries,.....and the FINAL collapse will start here too...after few weeks!
Harold: few weeks!!.....then there will be no point in staying here too!!
Robert: Harold!... we have to stay somewhere!!...but I don't think that you would prefer to be there when the SOLID BRANCH breaks up!
Harold: maybe you got a point Robert, thank you.....I will review my plans
Robert: very good, I would like you to visit me soon to show you some good information
Harold: that would be great Robert
THE END OF PART 8




THE END OF THE WORLD

PART 9

AT ROBERT'S HOME
Robert: look how the DOW JONES has started to collapse again
Harold: and you believe that it will be the final collapse?
Robert: I am sure of it!!
Harold: so, how much time do you think that we still have?!
Robert: about two years!!
Harold: two years!!...no Robert, I cannot agree with that, Two years is a very short period time
Robert: so what would you say?!
Harold: I would say....30 years
Roberto, let me ask you this......how many people are facing that the world will collapse after 30 years?
Harold: very few I guess, well, there are so many optimistic persons out there!
Robert: this is the proof that it won't wait for 30 years!!
Harold: I don't understand Robert
Robert:ok,let me tell you a story, to clear up what I mean........two men were in a jungle,....suddenly a large lion appeared in front of them,....one of the men ran away....and the other stood still in his place,.....which of them do you think is more brave?!
Harold :( smiling)well....I can't tell...because the one who stood still may be frozen from fear !
Robert: exactly !.....you see Harold,...we have three cases here......1)when the danger is too small for us, we may neglect it and not react........2)when the danger is modest, we will react to it so clearly.........3)when the danger is so huge for us,....we do not react !!
Harold: I think I am beginning to get your point
Robert: Harold,you are not like Oliver,....you admit that the world is facing a danger.....and this danger is not so small to be neglected
Harold: so we have the second and the third cases left
Robert: exactly, and if the dangers were moderate.....as you suggested....we should have been seeing more facing and more reaction to it from people all over the world,.......but simply because the dangers are huge...and people know deep inside that they cannot do much about them.......they just DENY them !!
Harold: a good point Robert, but I still that find two years is a very short period of time
Robert: that’s because we cannot easily imagine the Mathematical Facts, look to this curve,...the Mathematical idea of acceleration is not a common sense at all,...it is hard to imagine,.....let me give you a nice example that is often given in this case,.......assume that we have a board of Chess,....and that we will put one coin on the first square,...then put two coins on the second square,....then 4 coins on the third,...then 8 on the fourth,....and so on,........how much coins do you think will be put on the last square??
Harold: I think it will be a huge number
Robert: make a guess
Harold: 10 Billions?
Robert: much more
Harold: 10 Trillions?!
Robert: much more!!
Harold: amazing!
Robert: so you see, how Mathematical facts are so far from our common Sense,........this is the case with the idea of the acceleration of Destruction,.....but by using some curves and some simple calculations you will find that two years are not a short period at all...for an Accelerating procedure
Harold: well,I will not argue more now about this point Robert,....but honestly tell you that I feel so much confused
Robert: good!!...at least you are reacting!!
Harold: I am reacting alright!!
Robert :( smiling)look Harold,..Things may not be so bad after all!
Harold: REALLY?!!What a nice thing to say now Robert!
Robert :(smiling)I am not joking....I am serious
Harold: my dear friend, the only good thing that I can imagine to hear now, is that you were joking about everything you said today!
Robert :( smiling)well,....I don't think that I will go that far !
Harold: then tell me quickly about the good sides that you are finding in that hell you are talking about!
Robert: look Harold,...do not think that things are worse for you now because I told you all this,...these facts were always been deep inside your mind,...and they give many people very deep feelings of depression,....so, facing them now is surely a very positive step,...and it may lead to more positive steps

THE END OF PART 9